As I write on January 7, 2022, it is Christmas Day in Russia, which observes Christmas according to the calendar of the Russian Orthodox Church. The Russian Federation is a far different country from the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) that fell apart in 1991.
Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin has been either president or prime minister since 1999. He is not a communist. He has been an economic reformer and strongly favors private enterprise as the road to Russian prosperity and greatness. Russia and its people have prospered considerably under his rule. His leadership style, however, is autocratic by most Western standards. Moreover, despite its great resources, Russia lags the U.S. and other major European and Asian powers in economic development and influence.
Unlike the strongly anti-Christian Marxists that preceded the notably more tolerant and perhaps Christian leaning Mikhail Gorbachev, who dominated Soviet leadership from 1988 to 1991, Putin identifies as Russian Orthodox and has favored the growth of the Russian Orthodox Church, which has grown and continues to grow at an astonishingly rapid pace. According to a Pew Survey in 2017, 73 percent of Russian adults now identify as Christians. Many Russian musicians and performers seen on entertainment and social media wear Christian crosses. A similar Pew Survey of the U.S. in 2019 showed that Christian identity had dropped to 65 percent.
Putin is, of course, a strong Russian nationalist, but his international ambitions closely resemble those of the old Soviet Union and the Russian Empire in its competition with the British Empire from 1830 to 1907, called by both the Russians and the British, “ The Great Game.” To Putin, Russian national security and Russian dominance are almost inseparable. The feckless weaknesses, groveling social Marxism, corruption, and incompetency of the Biden Administration are a perfect opportunity for Russian bullying and former Soviet territorial recoveries in Eastern Europe.
The incredible abandonment of clear thinking, moral principle, and hard-learned military experience evidenced in our catastrophic August 2021 withdrawal from Afghanistan gave notice to our potential enemies and allies alike that the immediate future of U.S. foreign and military policy would be governed by politicians, bureaucrats, and political generals distant from common sense reality and traditional moral purpose and prone to appease leftist ideology and bullying. This comes at a time when the Biden Administration and its political generals are severely weakening the morale, unity, and military preparedness of our armed forces by imposing insane and destructive Critical Race Theory (CRT) and politically correct gender nonsense on all personnel. These Marxist propaganda tools are being used to purge traditional conservatives and patriots from our services. We must reverse this enormous evil or our armed forces will only be fit for enforcing leftist social and political agendas.
Putin knows that he may have only a narrow time window to advance his territorial ambitions. Fair American elections in November 2022 and 2024 would probably close his more ambitious opportunities for mischief in Eastern Europe. The Russians already have at least 100,000 troops and the most formidable artillery and tank forces in the world on the Ukrainian border. Meanwhile they are signaling that snow and the Russian winter will not stop Russian forces highly trained for winter.
There is much more at stake than just Ukraine.
On December 17, the Russian Foreign Ministry gave what are essentially separate ultimatums to both NATO and the United States. These were in the form of two draft treaties, one between Russia and the United States and one between Russia and NATO.
The draft of the “Treaty between the United States and the Russian Federation on Security Guarantees” listed more than a dozen demands, including that NATO membership must be denied to all former USSR states. This includes the Baltic nations of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania that have been members of NATO since 2004. Sweden and Finland are prohibited from becoming NATO members. The United States will be prohibited from deploying troops, naval, and air forces to any area not approved by Russia. The U.S. must remove all nuclear weapons from Europe and would be prohibited from deploying ground-launched intermediate or short-range missiles outside U.S. territory.
The draft of the “Treaty Agreement on Measures to Ensure the Security of the Russian Federation and Member States of NATO” set forth some remarkably onerous demands. NATO member states are to be prohibited from deploying forces to NATO members who joined after May 27, 1997. This includes 14 countries: Albania, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia. NATO would be prohibited from deploying land-based intermediate and short-range missiles anywhere within reach of Russia. NATO would be prohibited from adding Ukraine or any other state in the future. NATO would be prohibited from military cooperation with Ukraine and other states in Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus, and Central Asia.
The Russians consider all the tiems of both treaties non-negotiable. Moscow will only be obligated “not to create situations threatening the national security of other parties to the treaties” and makes no restriction on Russian forces. The NATO alternative is a Russian military-technical or military response.
On December 23, Russia warned Sweden and Finland that becoming part of NATO would have serious military consequences.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov will hold bilateral security talks with U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman in Geneva on January 10. Russia plans to meet with NATO members, including the United States, Ukraine, and other former USSR states in Brussels on January 12.
Former Russian Deputy of Defense Andrei Kartapolov warned that NATO members that drag their feet in agreeing to Russian demands might be subject to pre-emptive strike.
On December 24, the Russians made display of test-firing a salvo of its new Zircon hypersonic missiles, bragging that they made U.S. aircraft carriers obsolete and “crack a destroyer like a nut” and adding threatening language for those who were slow to react to Russian warnings. White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said the United States would consult with its allies.
Finland, Sweden, and Poland, as well as, of course, Ukraine, bluntly and bravely rejected the notion that Russia had any right to determine their alliances. Some consider Putin’s demands so extreme that they must be mere bluster. Some analysts fear that Germany might cooperate in order to divide Europe between German and Russian hegemony. Germany’s new Chancellor, Olof Scholz, is a leftist Social Democrat, who took God out of his oath of office. A large Turkish minority is an important part of his political constituency. A major part of Putin’s psychological objective may be simply to divide NATO within Europe and against the U.S. It is certain he intends to stop its expansion through bullying or direct force.
There is good reason for the widespread belief that Putin is serious about overrunning Ukraine. Ukraine is 17 percent Russian-speaking, and the Donbas region on Ukraine’s southeastern border with Russia has a substantial Russian majority. If overrunning Ukraine goes smoothly, he might risk going after NATO members Estonia and Latvia, which both have Russian minorities of about 27 percent and valuable potential naval bases. If NATO begins to crumble, he might risk going after the Black Sea nations of Moldavia and Romania, even Bulgaria. Putin’s options depend upon a divided and intimidated NATO and a weak and feckless American president with a sympathetic neo-Marxist Congress. Putin’s primary weakness is the Russian economy, which is especially dependent on oil and gas prices and imported technologies, making Russia highly vulnerable to economic sanctions. The Russian military is the second strongest in the world next to the United States, and its military personnel are highly educable, disciplined, and unburdened by the woke nonsense that could substantially limit the fighting capability of U.S. and several NATO member combat forces.
Another concern for the United States and its Pacific allies is that if Russia gets away with overrunning Ukraine, China will be even more determined to overrun Taiwan and go for more Pacific conquests. It is likely that the U.S. will face both a crisis over Ukraine and Taiwan. The Biden Administration is simply not a credible deterrent to strong aggressors bent on territorial expansion and hegemonic influence.
Soeren Kern published an article yesterday, January 6, in The Gatestone Institute, entitled “Russia’s Putin to NATO: Commit Suicide or Face All-Out War.” Kern’s article contains considerable detailed commentary quotes by several intelligence analysts. Highly recommended!
Kern quotes several intelligence analysts that draw a strong analogy comparing Putin and the Ukraine with Hitler and Czechoslovakia in 1938. In September 1938, British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain thought he had brought peace to Europe by appeasing Hitler on German claims to Sudetenland. The result was that Hitler took all of Czechoslovakia in March 1939.
Less than six months later, on September 1, 1939, one day after a Nazi false-flag fabrication of Polish troops attacking a German radio tower near the border, Hitler launched a massive, coordinated infantry, armor and air attack invading Poland in secret complicity with Stalin. Thus began World War II.
Meanwhile, the Biden Administration and its captive media—CNN, MSNBC, ABC, CBS, NBC, NPR, the Washington Post, New York Times, and the Atlantic—are burying the fact that the Biden Administration’s analytical incompetence, corruption, and blind commitment to unworkable leftist polices have encouraged Putin to launch his chariots of conquest.
Moreover, the Democrats in Congress are launching another false narrative campaign to cover up their villainy and lies with a Hitler inspired false-flag deception. They are celebrating the anniversary of their January 6, 2021, triumph over Capitol rioting with which they were actually highly complicit. They are basically repeating the Reichstag Fire false-flag trick. The Reichstag Fire, which burned the German Parliament building in Berlin on the night of February 27, 1933, was a key event in establishing the Nazi dictatorship. It was widely believed with good reason that the fire was actually contrived by Nazi leadership to turn public opinion against their opponents so they could assume emergency powers giving them complete political control of the country without opposition. Indiana Congressman Jim Banks believes the breadcrumbs of the real January 6 instigators lead right to Nancy Pelosi’s office.
The Ukraine situation should not be taken lightly. The consequences could be serious and widespread.