I voted for Trump in 2016 and was there sooner and with more effort, enthusiasm, and financial support than most Trump supporters. I voted for him because I think the Trump agenda will not only make American Great Again but is also vitally necessary to reverse our rapid moral and cultural decline.
I especially liked his tougher stances on immigration and realism about the nature of Islamic terrorism and Jihad. I have probably written at least 75 articles on immigration and the same number on Islam in the last twelve years. I still believe Trump has a right gut-feel for these issues, even though I have sometimes been annoyed by his wobbling because of a lack of specific knowledge on immigration issues, especially the explosive, multi-layered, and destructive consequences of amnesties.
Trump cannot know everything, but he especially needs to know the likely fiscal, economic, social, cultural, national security, and political consequences of amnesties. They have never boded well for American workers and middle class taxpayers and their families. They do not bode well for any conservative political issues, including gun ownership, right-to-life, and free speech.
They are especially adverse to conservative electoral majorities and to Republican political prospects. Political pressures being what they are, a small, strictly controlled amnesty is as likely as a tornado assembling a brand new Ford F-150 truck. I do not think it is an exaggeration to equate a new amnesty with Republican suicide. First of all, a DACA/Dreamer amnesty for the children of illegal immigrants sets a terrible precedent for the future.
We are the only nation in the world to retain a policy of “birthright” citizenship (anchor babies) as a de facto immigration policy. Expanding that costly and culturally insane policy to anyone coming to the U.S. under sixteen years of age is a super-stupid mistake effectively abolishing immigration control. The ancient Greeks had a perfect saying for it; “Whoever the gods would destroy they first make mad (relieve of their senses).” Alexander the Great, according to Winston Churchill, also had an appropriate quote: “The people of Asia (Western Turkey) are slaves because they could not pronounce the word, No.”
Secondly, it is highly unlikely that the DACA/Dreamer amnesty would be limited to the 800,000 that have signed up for DACA. The Democrat-RINO Senate “Dream” Act amnesty plan proposed by Democrat Dick Durbin (IL) and Republican Lindsey Graham would include approximately 3.3 million illegal immigrants and another 400,000 foreign students.
Under current rules, even if the amnesty only included only the cur rent 800,000 DACA applicants, about two million parents would automatically be eligible for amnesty. According to Princeton University researchers Stacie Carr and Mar ta Tienda, chain migration from Mexico results in 6.38 Mexican nationals coming to the U.S. for every new Mexican immigrant. Some come legally and some come illegally. About 618,000 of the DACA applicants so far are Mexican. Carr and Tienda conclude that even a relatively small 800,000 amnesty would result in a chain of 4.0 to 6.0 million additional Mexican immigrants.
If the Durban-Graham Act passes, the 6.0 million would be extremely conservative. As Jessica Vaughan, Center for Immigration Studies (CIS) Policy Director, recently told Breitbart News, “There will be chainn migration…There always has been in amnesties.” At least 25 percent of approved 1986 Amnesty applications were fraudulent. As I wrote on Sept. 7, DACA is shaping up déjà vu like the disastrous 1986 amnesty, which Ronald Reagan was persuaded to sign despite feeling uncomfortable with it. He was told it would be less than a million. It turned out to be 2.75 million. Within a decade six supplemental amnesties brought the total to nearly 6.0 million.
Illegal immigration did not go away. It exploded. As a rule of thumb, based on the 1986 amnesty, for every amnesty, you can expect 2.5 additional illegal immigrants in the next decade and increasing political pressure from Democrats seeking more welfarestate voters and RINO Republicans seeking bigger campaign donations from cheap labor lobbies for more amnesties.
According to Reagan’s Attorney General, Ed Meese, Reagan considered signing the 1986 Amnesty his biggest mistake. Ironically, then Representative Chuck Schumer was instrumental in making the 1986 Amnesty a mistake that keeps on growing. In my personal opinion, a 2017 DACA/Dreamer amnesty would be the biggest ever by far and be fatal to the Republican Party as early as 2020.
Thirdly, there are big taxpayer costs to amnesties. Based on a UC San Diego data survey sponsored by the leftist Center for American Progress, the net cost of the Durbin-Graham “Dream” Amnesty would be at least $115 billion over ten years. Ten years is the cutoff for the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) legislative cost estimates. However, the costs would continue for at least 50 years, according to a Heritage Foundation Study of amnesty in 2013. In addition, these are only the Federal Government costs.
Most of the costs of illegal immigration and amnesty are borne by state and local governments. Furthermore, the estimate of “dreamer” income is 32,000, which is more than double some estimates by conservative think-tanks. Based on the previous Heritage Foundation study, the costs are more likely to exceed $378 billion over a decade and $1.9 Trillion over 50 years.
All of this is deficit spending. We had better stay chummy with our Chinese bankers. Eliminating ObamaCare would reduce both figures. Amnesty and ObamaCare are both disasters on their own. Combining them is madness beyond human conception. Fourthly, Amnesty and its subsequent chain of cheap labor immigration continues the lack of government concern for American workers and their families. They haven’t had a real income increase in 30 years.
Cheap foreign labor already suppresses the wages of American workers by 5.0 percent. That is collectively $494 billion per year. Divided by the total BLS civilian employment in August 2017, that is $3,072 per worker per year lost because of cheap foreign labor. Amnesty adds insult to injury for American workers.
Fifth, as with all amnesties, there is a campaign to misrepresent the facts regarding a DACA/Dreamer amnesty—a sure signal of a bad deal. One liberal pitch is that the Dreamers are all paragons of virtue. Yet 2,139 DACA applicants have had their protected status revoked for serious crimes. One enthusiastic reporter noted than many were serving in the Armed Forces. Actually, active duty and veteran DACA applicants are only 1.1 percent of the total.
According to the Migration Policy Institute, DACA-qualified illegals are considerably less well educated than Americans of comparable ages. According to CIS, actual vetting of DACA applicants ranges from little to none. We really know little about most of them, yet we are portraying them all as perfect future citizens. As the Romans used to say, “Caveat Emptor”—Let the buyer beware. Or as Southern farmers used to say:
“Don’t buy a pig in a poke (bag)”— don’t buy merchandise unseen or untested.
Sixth, many statements about DACA are outright lies or traditional liberal false narratives. I believe Trump is truthful, but his lack of knowledge about immigration details has resulted in him repeating a false understanding of amnesty. Amnesty is simply not enforcing the law that requires deportation of illegal immigrants. It does not matter that they are not given a path to citizenship or have to pay nominal fines or take classes. We have heard the disingenuous assertions of “It’s not amnesty,” before, but it is amnesty unless the illegal immigrants are sent home.
When Trump speaks contradictions like: “We’re looking at allowing people to stay here…We’re not looking at citizenship, we’re not looking at amnesty,” it is a sure sign he is not getting experienced advice from the right people. In fact, my deepest concern is that Trump has been cut off from the knowledgeable advice of Attorney General Sessions, Stephen Miller, and the wealth of information available from CIS, FAIR (Federation of Americans for Immigration Reform) and Numbers USA. He is getting very bad advice from a new inner circle that excludes Steve Bannon and Sebastian Gorka. His new inner circle of advisors are not bad people, but they are thoroughly imbued with liberal/RINO knowledge that isn’t true and worldviews that have little genuine empathy with ordinary American workers and middle class taxpayers—the people that elected Trump and with whom he does have genuine empathy.
These advisors are witlessly coaxing Trump to betray himself and his most ardent supporters. It will not have a good outcome for Trump, the American people, or the Republican Party.
Seventh, the biggest lie is that signing the Dream Act will make Trump more popular and expand his coalition. Senate Democrat Minority Leader Charles Schumer is among the shrewdest politicians in the corrupt Leftist world. He and his inner circle of allies know that the only way to destroy Trump is to drive a wedge between Trump and his loyal supporters. The Dreamer Amnesty is that terribly deceptive wedge. It sounds so compassionate and reasonable, but it is an insult to American workers, taxpayers, truth, justice, and wisdom.
Lastly, almost all past research indicates that Republicans gain little credibility or support with Latino voters by favoring amnesty or weak enforcement policies. Latino Democrat loyalty is based on support for strong social – welfare programs and remains 65 to 75 percent depending on other circumstances. A significant minority of Latino voters are strongly against amnesty. A study by Dr. George Hawley of the University of Houston on the 2006 Congressional elections confirmed this consistent finding. Republicans do not gain Latino votes by favoring amnesty or weak immigration enforcement policies. The really significant finding was that Republicans who favor weak immigration enforcement policies or amnesty saw their support by non-Hispanic whites fall by 10 percent.
Controlling an amnesty is nearly impossible. Amnesties are also practically irreversible, while sound enforcement measures can be scrapped after a single election. The unwanted effects of amnesty will surely be clear by 2020, if not November 2018. I would like to see Trump and the Trump Agenda succeed. But unless Trump steers far away from amnesty by whatever name, I cannot be optimistic, and I fear the consequences for Trump, the Republican Party and the American people.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR – Mike Scruggs, Author and Columnist
a.k.a. Leonard M. Scruggs
Mike Scruggs is the author of two books: The Un-Civil War: Shattering the Historical Myths; and Lessons from the Vietnam War: Truths the Media Never Told You, and over 600 articles on military history, national security, intelligent design, genealogical genetics, immigration, current political affairs, Islam, and the Middle East.
He holds a BS degree from the University of Georgia and an MBA from Stanford University. A former USAF intelligence officer and Air Commando, he is a decorated combat veteran of the Vietnam War, and holds the Distinguished Flying Cross, Purple Heart, and Air Medal. He is a retired First Vice President for a major national financial services firm and former Chairman of the Board of a classical Christian school.
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